Collection: Jobs Report Analysis
Analysis of the BLS Employment Situation Summary
On the first (or second) Friday of every month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Employment Situation Summary—or Jobs Report—which estimates job gains and losses throughout the prior month. I take the opportunity to discuss their findings and relevant news stories or economic theory with my Jobs Report Analysis series. As always, I try to make the data accessible to readers of all backgrounds and aim to teach readers where they can look up more details.
This Collection will be updated to include the latest of these articles, plus summaries of prior entries in the series. I will also provide links to various BLS reports for readers interested in seeing their latest reports. Sign up for free to receive my latest article on jobs reports every quarter.
Latest Jobs Report Analysis Article
Q2 2022 - U.S. Jobs Exceed Pre-Pandemic Levels as Strong Labor Market Continues to Grow
After adding more than one million more jobs to the U.S. economy throughout the second quarter of 2022, job levels once again exceed pre-pandemic levels for the first time. This was one crucial example of how our response to the pandemic recession differed from our response to the Great Recession of 2007-2009 following the global financial crisis.
In July’s issue of the Economic Justice and Progress Newsletter, I discussed some of these details, why it was so important to avoid a repeat of our response to the last recession, and argue once again that this pivotal moment in U.S. history requires bold leadership.
Total job growth Q2 2022 (preliminary): 1,124,000
June 2022:
Net job growth (preliminary): 372,000
Three-month average job growth (preliminary): 375,000
May 2022:
Net job growth (revised): 384,000
Three-month average job growth (revised): 383,000
April 2022:
Net job growth (revised): 368,000
Three-month average job growth (revised): 493,000
Third quarter jobs reports are set to release on August 5th, September 2nd, and October 7th. I plan to cover Q3 2022 jobs reports in the October edition of the Economic Justice and Progress Newsletter. If you haven’t already signed up to receive my newsletter, you can do so for free by clicking the subscribe button below and receive it as soon as it is published.
Unemployment and Inflation Basics
If you’re unfamiliar with some of the terms used throughout my Jobs Report Analysis articles, you need a reminder, or you’d like another perspective on how this author tends to think of such concepts, then you may enjoy reading my article on the basics of unemployment and inflation indicators.
BLS Reports
The following links will take you to the most recent1 BLS reports available:
Employment Situation Summary (Jobs Report)
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS homepage)
Other Official Reports
I plan to add links to reports from other departments, such as the DOL, here:
I may add other links periodically, but feel free to let me know if there are other reports you would like me to cover in my Jobs Report Analysis articles.
Economic Justice and Labor
Workers’ rights, their material conditions, and their bargaining power in a supposedly “free” labor market are cornerstones of economic justice. Jobs report data is also used disingenuously by people making specious arguments in an effort to undermine economic justice, such as those who would quite literally advocate starving workers into risking their lives for minimum wage jobs during a pandemic.
For these and other reasons, I want to help readers keep track of developments in the labor market while always focusing on the workers who keep the world running.
Jobs Report Analysis Archives
Archives last updated July 25, 2022
Q1 2022 - Job Growth, Election Concerns, and Labor Union Victories
Evidence continues to suggest that the ongoing economic recovery is far stronger than the recovery following the Great Recession. However, the Democratic majority in Congress could face similar midterm election results as they did during the 2010 midterms. Families across the United States continue to struggle and far too many campaign promises have yet to be delivered.
Still, though there are causes for concern, I remain optimistic about the organized labor movement and celebrate recent union victories in this April 2022 edition of the Economic Justice and Progress Newsletter.
Total job growth Q1 2022 (revised): 1,616,000
March 2022:
Net job growth: 398,000
Three-month average job growth: 539,000
February 2022:
Net job growth: 714,000
Three-month average job growth: 602,000
January 2022:
Net job growth: 504,000
Three-month average job growth: 580,000
A February Update on Jobs, Corruption, and Unionization
The first BLS Jobs Report covering 2022 data also included major revisions to 2021 monthly job growth figures. The table below shows a breakdown of the revised numbers, what was previously stated, and the net change.
You can read more details about the preliminary 2022 data and 2021 revisions in my February update below.
Note that, unless otherwise stated, the articles below reflect preliminary data and early revisions to 2021 job growth data. Figures in this Collection reflect the latest revision as of the date edited. See the February 2022 update above for the most recent revisions to 2021 data, except for December, which received another subsequent revision from 510,000 to 588,000.
Faint Glimmers of Hope Amidst Encroaching Darkness - Q4 2021 Jobs Report Analysis
My first quarterly analysis article examined preliminary estimates for total 2021 job growth, the decelerating rate of job growth, and the worsening public health situation across the United States. I ultimately argued that the Biden administration needs to start following through on its promises if the Democratic party wants to avoid an electoral defeat in the 2022 midterm elections.
Total job growth 2021 (revised): 6,743,000
December 2021:
Net job growth: 588,000
Three-month average job growth: 637,000
November 2021:
Net job growth: 647,000
Three-month average job growth: 583,000
October 2021:
Net job growth: 677,000
Three-month average job growth: 539,000
September 2021 - Workers Strike for Economic Justice After Second Month of Slowing Job Growth
Net job growth: 424,000
Three-month average job growth: 543,000
Despite unfounded claims that unemployment insurance was keeping workers from seeking jobs, after the Labor Day expiration of UI benefits, we had the slowest month of job growth all year. However, slowing job growth is giving workers additional leverage in employment negotiations, spurring an increasingly widespread labor movement many are calling “Striketober”.
I address the latest jobs numbers, ongoing and upcoming strikes, and allude to a future article discussing more details surrounding Striketober as it unfolds. Check out my Coming Soon page to see other forthcoming articles!
August 2021 - Job Growth Decelerated as COVID Surged and UI Benefits Expired
Net job growth: 517,000
Three-month average job growth: 588,000
August was the first month of 2021 in which the three-month average job gains decreased, as you can see in the preliminary graph below. Revised figures are a bit more optimistic, but the downward trend remains. See the February 2022 update for the most recent revisions to 2021 data.
While there are undoubtedly several factors underlying the decelerating job growth, the most obvious—and, arguably, most important—is the surging COVID-19 cases catching up with the economy. Since these jobs numbers are lagging indicators, and offer a glimpse at what was happening last month, the August jobs report was the first to reflect this unfortunate reality.
Because of the surging COVID-19 cases, I took the opportunity to discuss some pandemic-specific data the BLS tracks and how marginalized groups are once again being disproportionately impacted by this latest wave. I also argued that the federal unemployment insurance programs ended far too soon and presented data suggesting the economy still has not recovered.
July 2021 - Another Record-Breaking Month for Jobs as Infrastructure Deals Progress
Net job growth: 689,000
Three-month average job growth: 564,000
As of the February 2022 revisions, July no longer shows over 1 million jobs added during the month, but still shows strong growth of 689,000. When I wrote this, I was also reviewing economic studies on the potential impact of the infrastructure bills Congress is (still) negotiating, so I included some topline figures which appeared in my Infrastructure Investments and a Call for Solidarity article.
I also took the opportunity to introduce readers to the concept of disaggregated economic statistics, or breaking topline data down into separate groups. Although aggregates are also important, the suffering among marginalized groups who are disproportionately impacted by certain events is often obscured when other groups bring averages up.
June 2021 - A Silver Lining of Summer Job Growth
Net job growth: 557,000
Three-month average job growth: 422,000
Despite many negative trends—such as COVID-19 cases beginning to surge, and my (apparently warranted) suspicions that Congress would negligently allow federal unemployment benefits to expire on Labor Day—June initially had the strongest job growth all year until July rolled around. See the February 2022 update for the most recent revisions to 2021 data.
I took the opportunity also to discuss how the 2020 recession became the shortest recession in U.S. history, following the longest economic expansion in history, and gave a brief overview of how the NBER determines when these periods begin and end.
May 2021 - Job Gains Increase as Labor Shortage Debate Continues
Net job growth: 447,000
Three-month average job growth: 471,000
Despite the asinine right-wing narrative that “no one wants to work anymore” due to unemployment benefits, which started gaining traction in response to April’s disappointing job growth, job growth trends were steadily accelerating while COVID-19 cases were subsiding. However, most Republican governors began illegally attempting to block their states’ unemployed workers from collecting federal unemployment benefits in an attempt to starve workers into low-wage jobs.
I addressed this “labor shortage” debate, provided context, and ultimately argued:
Either way, searching for a good job—even if it takes a few months longer to find the right fit—seems better for workers and the economy than a repeated cycle of accepting a bad job offer and quitting shortly thereafter.
April 2021 - Disappointing Job Gains Suggest Economy is Still Recovering from Pandemic Recession
Net job growth: 263,000
Three-month average job growth: 559,000
Until the August jobs report released, April held the spot for the second lowest number of jobs added in a month of 2021, the lowest now being September as of the jobs report released on October 8th. I argued back in April and May, as I continue to argue now, that the pandemic is not over. I also discussed plans for paid leave, family care, and other proposals which could be included in the budget reconciliation infrastructure bill, if it passes.
I mentioned inflation and supply chain disruptions as well, and plan to eventually publish a more detailed article covering recent price fluctuations. To see what other upcoming articles I have planned, check out my Coming Soon page for a list of specific topics and general subjects I plan to discuss.
March 2021 - Record Job Gains, but Economic Recovery Still Incomplete
Net job growth: 704,000
Three-month average job growth: 645,000
My first Jobs Report Analysis article featured both good news and sobering realities of how far we have to go before we even reach pre-pandemic levels of employment. Since it marked the one-year anniversary of the beginning of the 2020 economic recession, I spent a fair portion of the article discussing 12-month trends. I also outlined reasons why experts estimate the “true” unemployment rate a few percentage points higher than the headline U-3 rate.
Feedback
Whether you are learning about labor economics for the first time or are an expert, whether you agree or disagree with my conclusions, or you have questions or suggestions regarding what I should include in future articles, I welcome constructive feedback.
Thank you for reading my newsletter and taking the effort to learn about making the world a better place. I look forward to hearing your thoughts on how we can make progress towards a more just economy.
-JJ
Updated 7/25/2022 - Added summary of Q2 2022 jobs report; updated jobs data to reflect latest revisions and preliminary data; added link to subscribe for quarterly jobs reports analysis articles.
Updated 7/11/2022 - Added link to Q2 2022 jobs report.
Updated 4/18/2022 - Added Q1 2022 article and updated Archives section.
Updated 2/13/2022 - Added February 2022 updates; added notes about revisions to summaries of prior articles; updated revised job growth stats.
Updated 1/16/2022 - Added Q4 2021 article; updated revised job growth stats; stats without (preliminary) or (revised) are final.
Updated 12/1/2021 - Added holiday update article; discussed transition to quarterly series; updated revised stats and added October 2021 headline stats
Updated 10/16/2021 - Added September jobs report analysis
Updated 10/8/2021 - Added revised figures released with the September jobs report; added forthcoming September jobs report analysis; added DOL link; updated prior summaries talking about record lows.
N.B. to anyone looking for specific reports—the latest report’s URL ends in .nr0.htm whereas specific reports will end in the date released. Also note the /archives/ folder. Examples include:
Latest Jobs Report
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htmAugust 2021 Jobs Report, Published September 3, 2021
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_09032021.htm