Faint Glimmers of Hope Amidst Encroaching Darkness
Q4 2021 Jobs Reports Analysis
On Friday January 7, 2022, the final BLS Jobs Report for 2021 delivered disappointing, if not entirely unexpected, news of a persistent trend of decelerating job growth. Although these are preliminary estimates, and there are silver linings to these otherwise dismal data, the fourth quarter of 2021 (Q4 2021) jobs numbers appear to reflect the rapidly worsening public health conditions across the United States.
Updated February 13, 2022
Note that the analysis below reflects preliminary data surrounding 2021 job growth. While much of the big-picture remains the same, certain short-term trends and fluctuations may not remain the same as they were before revisions. See the February 2022 update for the most recent revisions to 2021 data.
There are causes for both concern and for bittersweet celebration. The employment situation is improving, albeit not at the pace everyone would hope for, but it could have been much worse. Still, many circumstances did not have to be quite this dire.
As I will argue throughout my analysis, this recent turn for the worse could have been mitigated, if not avoided altogether, had the Biden administration simply followed through with its promises. They still have time to fix their mistakes, but mishandling multiple crises will undoubtedly cost people their lives.
But first, let us turn to the jobs data before examining potential causes for these downward trends.
December, November and October 2021 Jobs
A persistent downward trend in both total and average job gains, as you can see in the graph below, led to what preliminary data suggests is the slowest single month of job growth in 2021. December 2021 added a net total of 199,000 jobs—which could be revised up or down by roughly +/- 100,000 jobs as more data comes in—and this initial estimate once again moves January 2021 out of its place as the slowest single month of job growth for the year.
Despite this downward trend, a handful of industries are still showing modest growth. The chart below shows how, throughout the final quarter of 2021, most sectors added jobs. The exception, which has consistently lost jobs since the fall school season began, is the public sector. There have been fluctuations along the way, including statistical oddities impacted by seasonal adjustments to state and local education jobs, but government jobs have consistently led the losses in recent months.
The table below shows a breakdown of job gains and losses by industry throughout the fourth quarter of 2021, but it also provides additional context from 2020.
Throughout 2021, the U.S. economy added jobs. However, 2020 ended with a winter COVID surge and job losses which threatened to plunge the economy back into recession. This past year began as an exercise in learning from past mistakes, including those made throughout 2020, but I worry that the Biden administration is becoming complacent and making unforced errors.
To get an idea of what I mean, let’s take a stroll through memory lane and see all the peaks and valleys throughout the 2021 economic recovery.
Learning (and Failing to Learn) From the Past & 2021
Coming out of a year like 2020—during which several million jobs were lost due to pandemic disruptions, and the ensuing economic recovery faltered as the winter COVID surge flipped modest monthly job gains into more than 300,000 net job losses—the Biden administration inherited many economic fires to put out.
After swearing in new leadership in the White House and new members of Congress—and surviving an attempted coup—the United States was on the path to recovery in early 2021. For a broader look back at the Biden administration’s successes and failures, I wrote an article chronicling last year’s events, but this article will focus on the labor market specifically.
You can see in the graph of monthly job gains below that some policy successes arguably fostered—or, at the very least, did not stand in the way of—robust job growth. In fact, 2021 saw more than 6.4 million jobs added to the economy, which is within approximately 56,000 jobs of the amount of job growth between 2017 and 2019. That gap could even close if November or December figures are revised upwards when more data is available.
As a result, the headline unemployment rate is now 3.9%, which is only 0.4% higher than it was in February 2020. Approximately 6.3 million people are currently unemployed, which is higher than the 5.7 million pre-pandemic level of unemployment, but it is far lower than the December 2020 level of nearly 10.8 million people. You can see in the table below how the labor force grew, and unemployment fell, throughout 2021.
Another positive development throughout 2021 is the sharp decline in workers who were unemployed more than 27 weeks. The chart below serves as a reminder that, despite how much work we still have left to do to address multiple crises, the situation could be worse. The U.S. could have failed to learn the lessons of the “Great Recession” following the 2007-08 financial crises, but instead, the 2020 recession was the shortest recession in U.S. history.
There was also evidence of, in my opinion, long overdue wage growth throughout multiple industries. While the same people who are largely responsible for the era of shipping U.S. manufacturing jobs overseas are now lamenting the fact that essential workers are being paid for their labor, I personally believe these workers deserve more pay and better working conditions. I’m disappointed but not surprised that Wall Street apologists and enablers disagree with my assessments.
The table below shows a breakdown of weekly and hourly earnings, how they’ve changed in recent months, and how they compare to December 2020 levels.
With no shortage of bad news these days, it is sometimes hard to remember that some things are improving, that these situations could have turned out worse, and that we have the ability to improve our outlook even further. However, that will require holding our elected officials to account and ensuring that they follow through on their promises.
As I will demonstrate in the final section of this article, neither our public health situation nor the economy has fully recovered. I cited a chart prepared by the Economic Policy Institute which estimated that 18.7 million workers were still being impacted by the pandemic back in August. Similar estimates for December 2021 put that figure at 14.7 million workers now.
Far too many people in positions of power would evidently rather ignore the ongoing pandemic than address systemic deficiencies, but just as we’ve known for nearly two years now, COVID is going to continue disrupting the economy and everyone’s lives as long as it continues to spread uncontrollably.
COVID Surges as Biden Administration Struggles to Demonstrate Leadership
I mentioned in several articles how I was concerned about another winter surge in COVID cases; unfortunately, my concerns are being validated. The graph below shows how a recent spike in cases is eclipsing the 2020 winter surge.
The Biden administration has been mostly reactive, rather than proactive, in dealing with COVID. Perhaps if the Biden administration had achieved these seven goals it outlined in January 2021 we wouldn’t be in this situation:
Restore trust with the American people
Mount a safe, effective, comprehensive vaccination campaign
Mitigate spread through expanding masking, testing, treatment, data, workforce, and clear public health standards
Immediately expand emergency relief and exercise the Defense Production Act
Safely reopen schools, businesses, and travel, while protecting workers
Protect those most at risk and advance equity, including across racial, ethnic, and rural/urban lines
Restore U.S. leadership globally and build better preparedness
However, as you can see in the chart below, the United States is unfortunately mishandling the pandemic in ways that few other industrialized countries have managed to achieve.
The Biden administration attempted achieving some of the seven proposed goals, but seems to be giving up on others. Recent COVID test shortages have been among the most notable failures. COVID test manufacturers destroyed inventory and laid off thousands of workers last summer, but what did President Biden say when people asked him where they could find a test during this winter surge? He told them to Google it.
The incident was so egregious that video game journalists have been remarking that a Twitter account which generally focuses on helping people locate video game consoles before they fly off the shelves—but recently started using their platform to help people find COVID tests and vaccination sites—has frankly been more helpful than the government. I don’t disagree.
After Biden’s press secretary practically mocked the idea of mailing out free COVID-19 tests, the federal government is apparently going to begin sending out 500 million tests through the USPS this month. The latest from the White House is that the tests will be available for order on January 19th, 2022. Better late than never, I suppose.
Biden also has yet to fulfill a campaign promise he made to healthcare activist Ady Barkan, and the entire world, that he would not enforce patent protections for the COVID-19 vaccines developed with significant assistance from our public funds. Perhaps if the rest of the world had better access to vaccines, COVID would not be spreading so uncontrollably and its variants would not be evolving so rapidly.
Despite this spectacular failure, the conservative Justices on the Supreme Court recently decided to further impair our ability to mitigate this uncontrolled spread by forbidding the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) from requiring large employers to regularly test unvaccinated employees. This is a direct quote from the ruling:
“Although COVID-19 is a risk that occurs in many workplaces, it is not an occupational hazard in most.” —SCOTUS
I struggle to find enough words to properly express my rage at our government’s willful abdication of its Constitutionally mandated obligation to “provide for the common defense” against a deadly disease and to “promote the general Welfare” of its people.
So, if workers cannot reasonably expect to work in a safe environment, do they have a choice in showing up to work? Not if they rely on their paycheck for food and shelter. When asked about providing COVID relief to protect workers and mitigate the uncontrolled spread like Congress passed in 2020 and 2021, a Biden administration official said:
No. There might be something small for restaurants. But the economy is booming, there are millions of open jobs, and we do not believe people should be sitting at home if they are vaccinated and boosted, as most adults are.
Thousands are losing their lives every day; hospitals and healthcare workers are being overwhelmed; surgeries are being postponed; and our economic recovery is slowing. Not everyone in our government has given up mitigating the spread of COVID, but I wish there were more leaders and fewer opportunistic profiteers.
Senator Bernie Sanders recently reintroduced legislation that would provide N95 masks for everyone, saying that it is “an absolute scandal that in the richest country in the history of the world, high-quality masks are not more readily available to frontline workers, healthcare workers, and all Americans.” I applaud his efforts, but I cannot help thinking the Biden administration should have been pushing for this a year ago.
Likewise, I continue to see union leaders and rank-and-file members alike standing up for their own safety and for the safety of those around them. Whether it’s the flight attendants’ union advocating for staff and passenger safety, teachers’ unions trying to keep educators and students safe, nurses’ unions doing their best to keep healthcare workers and patients safe, or any number of other unions making a stand against such widespread, deadly greed, I continue to believe the best path forward is in solidarity.
Still, how many avoidable deaths and long-term health conditions must we suffer until our elected leaders and the corporate robber barons learn?
In my opinion, this is what happens when most politicians put profits over people. Republican politicians and corporate Democrats are apparently unanimous in their contempt for working- and middle-class Americans who risk their lives to keep this country running. If the Democratic party leadership cannot learn the lessons of 2020 and 2021, what hopes do we have that they will learn the lessons of the 2010 midterm election defeat?
The abject failure of our entrenched political and economic establishment brings to mind a quote that John Lithgow delivered while voice acting as the character Lord Farquaad in the 2001 animated film Shrek:
Some of you may die, but it’s a sacrifice I am willing to make.
Time is running out for Democratic leadership to finally learn that it is a false choice between economic recovery and controlling the pandemic—we need to control the pandemic in order to have a sustained economic recovery. We still have time to rectify this situation, and Biden can still deliver on his promises, but the 2022 midterm election season is upon us.
In the meantime, please stay safe out there.
Thank you for reading my newsletter and taking the effort to learn about making the world a better place. I look forward to hearing your thoughts on how we can make progress towards a more just economy.
-JJ
Updated 6/27/2022 - Updated captions under graphs and tables
Updated 4/11/2022 - Changed subtitle to reflect multiple reports analyzed by pluralizing “Reports”
Updated 2/13/2022 - Added note pertaining to February 2022 revisions to 2021 data
Updated 1/16/2022 - Added subscribe, share, and other buttons throughout.