Job Growth, Election Concerns, and Labor Union Victories
Q1 2022 Jobs Reports Analysis and More
The third month of 2022 employment numbers across the United States revealed positive trends, despite so many ongoing challenges working families face. Preliminary estimates suggest that the U.S. economy has been adding an average of more than 500,000 jobs every month throughout the first quarter of 2022. Unemployment rates, particularly the percentage of long-term unemployed workers, have also been steadily dropping.
While far too many families continue to struggle due to several other circumstances, evidence continues to demonstrate that our recovery from the 2020 recession has been far more robust than from the Great Recession, and we would undoubtedly be in a much worse situation overall had the economy not rebounded.
Still, it is important—especially during a midterm election year—to not lose sight of the challenges voters and their families continue to face. I plan to address both topics throughout this article.
But first, let’s examine recent employment data.
2022 Employment Data & Economic Recovery
This year has thus far continued 2021’s trend of averaging more than 500,000 jobs added each month, as you can see in the chart below.
In fact, the only month which—after revisions—failed to add more than 300,000 jobs since the beginning of 2021 was last April, as you can see in the FRED graph below.
Despite fairly consistent job growth, variations of asinine arguments amounting to “no one wants to work anymore” persistently find their way into the talking points of Fox News commentators who, arguably, have never truly worked a day in their lives. Strong job growth has also helped bring down the unemployment rate to nearly the same level it was before the pandemic began, as seen in the chart below.
Not only has the overall unemployment rate declined, but the number of long-term unemployed workers, as a percentage of total unemployed people, has also fallen precipitously. Notice how, in the BLS chart below, the red line fell much more rapidly after the 2020 recession than it did during the Great Recession, which also had a much broader shaded region denoting a longer-lasting recession.
And although some industries added more jobs than others, and two lost a combined total of approximately 1,700 jobs throughout March, most industries are growing overall. The BLS table below shows the breakdown of job gains (and losses) by industry.
I could go into more detail about the ways in which the labor market is recovering, and perhaps some caveats, but I want to instead discuss why these trends alone are not enough to bolster widespread confidence, because families across the United States are still struggling. Low approval ratings for President Biden and Congress appear to reflect this reality, which is concerning during a midterm election year.
Causes for Concern, Especially During an Election Year
With many members of Congress up for reelection this year, I am rather concerned about the possibility of recent history essentially repeating itself. The YouGov chart below shows trendlines of people who approve, disapprove, or are neutral to Congress. While this is a broad measure, and does not focus on individual members of Congress, this overall level of disapproval evokes memories of the 2010 midterm elections.
Last year, I cited an interview with Senator Bernie Sanders who also drew parallels between the 2010 and 2022 midterm elections:
Let me just be very clear: as the incoming Chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, I remember what happened in 2010. That is that Democrats, during the 2008-2010 period, controlled the White House, controlled the Senate, and controlled the House [of Representatives]. You remember that? And you remember what happened in 2010?
Democrats got wiped out [in the 2010 midterm elections]. They had the power, but they did not deliver for the American people.
Although Congress did pass the American Rescue Plan, they largely failed to maintain the political momentum to even sustain core provisions of that Act, let alone go beyond and expand upon the successes the Act delivered. I wrote about policy priorities the Democratic Congress and White House failed to deliver throughout 2021, and still have yet to deliver, in my year-in-review article I wrote this past December.
Many of the most impactful short-term consequences will, in my estimation, stem from failing to extend pandemic relief policies, while other shortcomings will have longer-term consequences. Not only have the pandemic unemployment provisions and expanded Child Tax Credit payments not been renewed, but Congress also recently failed to pass additional funding for COVID testing and treatment for uninsured people. These unfortunate failures will hurt families across the United States and undoubtedly play a factor in upcoming elections.
Some economists also argue that rising costs outpacing wage and salary increases are primarily to blame for the disconnect between overall economic recovery and public perception, while other economists feel that inflation is just one piece of the puzzle.
Other policy experts point out that, despite net increases in employment levels, there are still high levels of turnover and millions of people becoming unemployed in a given year. Because being unemployed in the United States is rather unpleasant—to say the least—and our unemployment insurance programs and administrative systems are in desperate need of improving and streamlining, workers who were unemployed at some point during the pandemic and recently found new jobs aren’t necessarily going to support the political party in power just because they are no longer unemployed.
Whatever the primary cause of people’s dissatisfaction with Washington, D.C., there is still time to address some of these underlying problems. However, we are currently in what I can only imagine is a proverbial eye of the storm—given the cycles in new COVID cases we’ve suffered, as seen in charts like the one below—and I can’t imagine rolling back pandemic mitigation efforts and relief will prove to have been a wise decision once the inevitable next wave is upon us. Time will tell, I suppose.
Meanwhile, management consulting firms are ostensibly trying to help bosses rationalize forcing workers back to work during a pandemic by attempting to redefine the term “endemic”. Although I wish I could share their optimism, agree with their rosy assumptions, and ultimately hope to move onto a new chapter in world history sooner rather than later, I would feel far more optimistic were we maintaining proactive measures.
Instead, I fear we are going to unnecessarily perpetuate a cycle of reactive responses to new waves once exponential growth of new cases, debilitating disabilities, and deaths have already taken off. I hope I am wrong.
I could, and may eventually, devote entire articles to examining the details surrounding some of these topics, but I’d like to end this article on a high note. Let’s take a look at some more optimistic news before we conclude this April edition of the Economic Justice and Progress Newsletter.
The Organized Labor Movement Scores More Victories
While massive corporations would apparently rather spend millions of dollars on union-busting law firms and consultants than spending that money on improving their employees’ working conditions and compensation, workers are joining together and unionizing. Amazon warehouse workers in New York even voted to create their own union, the Amazon Labor Union, without the assistance of a national union.
The Starbucks unionization effort also continues to spread, as you can see in the map maintained by A More Perfect Union below.
What’s more, Verizon just announced a $20 per hour minimum wage for new workers only a few days after a group of their Washington employees voted to unionize.
Although so many pandemic relief provisions and preventative measures are being prematurely rolled back—or have yet to be implemented in the first place—workers are taking the initiative by organizing for safer workplaces and better contracts. I still remain convinced that an organized labor movement is the best way to progress towards a more just economy.
As always, if you would like to share your thoughts on what a more just economy would look like for you and your family, or what other topics you would like me to cover in future articles, feel free to leave a comment below or respond directly to this email.
Thank you for reading my newsletter and taking the effort to learn about making the world a better place. I look forward to hearing your thoughts on how we can make progress towards a more just economy.
-JJ
Updated 6/27/2022 - Added captions to other images
Updated 4/18/2022 - Added captions to graphs; added buttons throughout
Another great article! I am beyond sick of hearing how people don’t want to work. They do they just should t have to work their asses off for pennies